Monday, 3 December 2007

Dollar posted new record lows vs majors in thin Forex market

The Euro set a record high against the Dollar on Friday at 1.4967; the key 1.5000 level remained out of reach and the EurUsd fell back more than a cent, at 1.4839, on comments from a Euro zone policy-maker. European Central Bank Governing Council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said he saw a greater-than-expected economic slowdown in the Euro zone and there was not enough data to dispel uncertainty about the effects of financial market turmoil. Ordonez's comments reminded investors that the fallout from the credit crisis is not limited to the United States, where the fallout has prompted 75 basis points worth of cuts in the fed funds rate since September and helped send the Dollar to record lows. Ordonez's comments gave some respite to the Dollar, which slid to record lows versus the Euro, the Swiss franc and other major currencies on Friday, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least another 25 basis points at its next meeting on December 11. End of last week, moves in currencies were exacerbated by thin liquidity following the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States on Thursday and a Japanese market holiday on Friday. In Friday’s trading, EurUsd was nearly unchanged at 1.4838 and well below the peak of 1.4967 set earlier in the session. The sell-off in the EurUsd helped drag the UsdJpy up from 107.54, 2-1/2 year low, but trading around 108.30 at close the Dollar is still down near 6% since the start of November, and on track for its biggest monthly percentage fall versus the Yen since March 2000. The Yen and the Swiss franc have both benefited in recent sessions as investors, worried about the fallout from credit market problems and the impact on the broader economy, remained averse to risk. Worries about the fallout have been stoked by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which warned in a report on Wednesday that overall losses caused by the US mortgage market crisis could conceivably hit $300 billion. The UsdJpy fell to a historic low of 1.0888 before rallying to trade up to 1.1022 +0.12%.

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