Thursday, 12 June 2008

Forex Technical Analysis for 06/09—06/13 Week

EUR/USD trend: buy.

GBP/USD trend: hold.

USD/JPY trend: hold.

EUR/JPY trend: buy.

Floor Pivot Points
Pair3rd Sup2nd Sup1st SupPivot1st Res2nd Res3rd Res
EUR/USD1.50901.52281.55021.56401.59141.60521.6326
GBP/USD1.92121.93361.95221.96461.98321.99562.0142
USD/JPY101.17102.52103.72105.07106.27107.62108.82
EUR/JPY158.36160.04162.79164.47167.22168.90171.65

Woodie’s Pivot Points
Pair2nd Sup1st SupPivot1st Res2nd Res
EUR/USD1.52621.55711.56741.59831.6086
GBP/USD1.93361.95221.96461.98321.9956
USD/JPY102.52103.72105.07106.27107.62
EUR/JPY160.04162.79164.47167.22168.90

Camarilla Pivot Points
Pair4th Sup3rd Sup2nd Sup1st Sup1st Res2nd Res3rd Res4th Res
EUR/USD1.55501.56641.57011.57391.58151.58531.58901.6004
GBP/USD1.95371.96221.96501.96791.97351.97641.97921.9878
USD/JPY103.52104.22104.45104.69105.15105.39105.62106.32
EUR/JPY163.10164.32164.73165.13165.95166.35166.76167.98

Tom DeMark’s Pivot Points
PairEUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYEUR/JPY
Resistance1.57771.9894106.95168.06
Support1.53651.9584104.40163.63

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
PairsEUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYEUR/JPY
100.0%1.57771.9771106.42166.15
61.8%1.56201.9653105.45164.46
50.0%1.55711.9616105.15163.94
38.2%1.55221.9579104.84163.41
23.6%1.54621.9534104.47162.77
0.0%1.53651.9461103.87161.72

Tags: EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, Fibonacci, GBP/USD, pivot points, technical analysis, USD/JPY

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Dollar Got Pushed Up by Today’s Fundamental Reports

The EUR/USD currency pair sunk down below the yesterday’s close level as the U.S. dollar continued its growth today after some good fundamental reports were released in the United States. Both retail sales and business inventories fulfilled the dollar bulls’ expectations today.

Import and export prices rose in May by 2.3% and 0.3% respectively. That growth followed 2.4% and 0.5% values that were seen a month before.

Initial jobless claims was the one disappointing indicator released today. They rose from 359k to 384k last week, while a growth to 370k was forecasted.

Retail sales report dominated the fundamental trading today. It showed the 1.0% increase for May which was above the consensus 0.5% growth and 0.4% growth in April.

Business inventories added 0.5% in April — a little more than 0.2% a month before and 0.3% average forecast for April.

Tags: business inventories, export and import prices, initial jobless claims, retail sales

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Monday, 19 May 2008

The Forex Market And Its Three Distinctive Elements

Although there are many distinctive elements of the Forex market, there are three that can be highlighted as helping new traders learn exactly what the foreign exchange market is all about. These distinctive elements are those that every new trader should know long before they make their first trade. The Forex system is one that is made to encompass the entire globe. It can be difficult to interpret and even more difficult to successfully trade within. The first step to being a successful trader is knowing how the system works. Before you even think about opening a Forex account, be sure that you are familiar with the foreign exchange market's three distinctive elements: geographical, functional, and participant.

Geographical

The Forex is a huge market that encompasses the entire globe. This is a market that spans from North America to Europe, to China, and back. There is no area it doesn't touch which makes the market so popular. There is simply something for everyone within the Forex market. Its easy 24 hour a day access makes it even more attractive for investors. No matter what time of day you want to trade, there will be someone trading in some distant location around the world. Although there is trading in the Forex in every corner of the globe, the major exchanges are Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Bahrain, London, New York, San Francisco, and Sydney. The geographical element of the foreign exchange market can help new traders realize the size and volume of the Forex. It is simply unmatched in volume and size making it a powerful tool for investors everywhere.

Functional

The entire Forex market functions to transfer purchasing power between countries. When trades are made, partners are converting currency revenues into their domestic currency. When one country's purchasing power is strong, another country's purchasing power may be weaker. The Forex market also functions to obtain and provide credit for international trade and to avoid an exchange rate disaster. When it comes to international trade, the Forex is helpful because it helps the movement of goods between countries and offers credit for financing.

Participant

The second type of participants is made up of individuals, and commercial and investment firms. This group consists of importers, exporters, tourists, and other portfolio investors. They use the market to help them invest. These are often the participants who use the Forex to hedge, which is a way to reduce their risk.

The third group type that seeks to profit from the foreign exchange market are s speculators and arbitragers. These people are out to make money for themselves. They are acting in their own self-interest. They seek profitable rate changes in order to help them profit and try to profit with the least possible risk involved. Large banks are sometimes a part of this group.

Also involved in the Forex are central banks and treasuries. They use it to change the value of their own currency, or to at least attempt to do so. This is something that they do with reserves. Their motive is not to profit but to influence the market. They want the value of their domestic currency to benefit their interests.

Foreign exchange brokers are the last of the five groups involved in the participant element of the Forex. These participants are those who facilitate trading but are not partners in the transaction. They typically charge a fee for their service, which is most often on a commission scale. They are often seen as go betweens for large traders.

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Investment Myths And The Forex Markets

First what is Forex: The FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with an volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another.

Many new Forex market traders have misconceptions about the entire system. They see people making money trading with the Forex market and automatically assume they can easily do the same. What they tend to forget it that there is strategy and research done in order to make successful trades and profits from trading. If you are new to the Forex market system, don't get caught up in popular investment myths. Be sure that you know exactly what to expect and be realistic when trading.

When you are trading and investing in any market, including the Forex, you must have the discipline needed to be successful. Although the system is enormous and there is a lot going on that you won't be involved within, you must actively protect your investments. Your investments will not be protected just because they are in the market. A lot can change throughout a day, so you have to always be aware of what is going on in order to be fully protected to your best ability. You should always make logical and researched decisions when trading. It is not a system to use to "get rich quick". It is a serious financial system that can break your pocket if you are not careful.

Leverage is something that is both great when it comes to the Forex and possibly dangerous. Trading currencies offers a high level of leverage. Those who don't have a lot of money to begin with can use leverage to gain more money. When used correctly, you can often do this in short amounts of time. Most people think however that this is something that can be done easily. Those who use leverage to their potential are often those with years of experience in trading. Some people tend to follow the myth that anyone will be able to easily use leverage to get rich fast. This is simply not true. You must be a trader with an excellent knowledge of the system in order to make leverage work to your maximum advantage.

Another thing to keep in mind is that just because you are trading with a minimum marginal deposit does not mean you should trade at levels above your portfolio. The myth that you can get away with this every time is not true. You should not over leverage yourself. By trading in small amounts, you will be able to make safe investments that will not result in huge losses. You will win some and lose some, especially when you are first starting out.

When it comes to the Forex market, you should know that what you assume to be true may not be true at all. You may think that you can use the Forex market to protect your investments. You have learned from reading this however that the Forex may not protect your investments, and one should be diligent in watching their investments in order to avoid anything catastrophic. You may also think that you can get rich quickly using the Forex market. The truth is that short term trading, which is notorious for turning profits quickly, is not for the beginner. Those who have traded for years may try short term investing, but it is very risky indeed. Lastly, you may think that leverage will help you "play with the big boys" and still stay safe. This can be a horrible assumption and many people will over leverage themselves if they are not careful. So, do research, be smart, and think before you act when dealing with the Forex.

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Sunday, 11 May 2008

What Is Rollover Interest In The Forex Market?

In the spot forex market, all trades must be settled in two business days. A rollover refers to the process of closing open position for today's value date and the opening of the same position for the next day's value date at a price reflecting the difference in interest rates between the two currencies.

In accordance with international banking practices, Forex brokers automatically rolls over all open positions to the next date at 5 PM EST for settlement.

Rollover involves exchanging the position being held for a position expiring the following settlement date. For example, for trades executed on Monday, the value date is Wednesday.

However, if a position is opened on Monday and held overnight, the value date is now Thursday. The exception is a position opened and held overnight on Wednesday. The normal value date would be Saturday; because banks are closed on Saturday the value date is actually the following Monday. Due to the weekend, positions held overnight on Wednesday incur or earn an extra two days of interest.

Trades with a value date that falls on a holiday will also incur or earn additional interest. Forex Traders can earn interest on rollovers, depending on the direction of their positions and interest rate differential between the two currencies involved.

For instance, the primary interest rates in Great Britain are much higher than in Japan, so if a trader buys GBP, he/she will earn interest at 5 PM EST time. on the other hand, if he/she sells GBP in this currency pair, he/she will pay interest at 5 PM EST time.

Overnight Interest/Rollover is automatically paid to a client's account after buying a currency with greater Interest Rate in its country, and charged to a client's account if the country issuing this currency has smaller Primary Interest Rates.

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